The market experienced a sharp reversal this week as geopolitical “noise” dominated the headlines.

• Calming the Waters: Following a period of high tension, statements from both the administration and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent served to “lower the temperature” regarding the U.S. stance on Greenland.
• The “Stop Hunt”: Stocks rallied sharply immediately after these updates, regaining key support levels. This type of volatility is often driven by algorithms “hunting” investor stop-loss orders. In such environments, we find it is often better to wait 24–48 hours for the market to settle before determining the next course of action.

Technical Levels to Watch

The Tuesday sell-off was significant, but it served a purpose by reversing previous overbought conditions. However, it also triggered a momentum “sell signal” that may keep indices under pressure in the short term.

• Immediate Resistance: The 20-day moving average and the rising trend line dating back to the mid-November lows are the first hurdles any rally must clear.
• Key Support: If the current rally fails to hold by Friday and breaks Tuesday’s lows, we are looking at the 100-day moving average and the mid-November lows as the primary floors for the market.

Earnings & Corporate Activity

While macro headlines are loud, corporate fundamentals provide a stabilizing backdrop:

• Top-10 Support: We expect the market to garner support over the next two weeks from the top-10 names in the index as they report earnings. (Note: Nvidia is an outlier here, reporting at the end of February).
• Buybacks & Insiders: As earnings “quiet periods” end and reports are released, we anticipate a return of both insider buying activity and corporate share buybacks, which typically provide a tailwind for prices.

The Big Picture: Sector Rotation

Underneath the headlines, the real story is the expansion of market breadth.

• Equal-Weight Performance: The rotation out of mega-cap tech into materials, industrials, and energy has pushed the equal-weighted index to new all-time highs.
• Oversold Tech: Interestingly, tech and financials are now becoming oversold, which may set up a counter-rotation as we move into the heart of earnings season.

The Resilient Dollar

Despite policy uncertainty, the US Dollar remains in a firm bullish uptrend. Foreign investors are purchasing US Treasury bonds at record levels, which directly counters the narrative of “dedollarization.” Simply put, if investors were worried about the dollar, they would not be buying dollar-denominated Treasuries at this scale.

Index Performance Returns %

Index	1 WK	YTD	1 YR	3 YRS	5 YRS
S&P 500	-0.38%	1.38%	16.89%	20.17%	12.99%
NASDAQ	-0.66%	1.18%	21.60%	28.51%	12.59%
DJIA	-0.29%	2.70%	14.38%	12.90%	9.88%

Interest Rates

Rate	1/16/2026	1/9/2026
UST 10 YR Govt Bond Yield	4.23%	4.17%
Germany 10 YR	2.85%	2.83%
Japan 10 YR	2.19%	2.10%
30 YR Mortgage	6.11%	6.16%
Oil	$59.44/ppb	$59.12/ppb
Regular Gas	$2.82/ppg	$2.80/ppg

All data as of Jan. 16, 2026.