Week in Review: June 21–27, 2026

Last week was a reminder that markets don’t move in straight lines — and that short-term turbulence rarely changes the long-term picture. Here’s what happened, what it means, and what we’re watching heading into the week ahead.

Market Snapshot — Week Ending June 26, 2026

Index 1 Week YTD 1 Year

S&P 500 -1.95% +7.43% +19.75%

NASDAQ -4.60% +8.84% +25.44%

Dow Jones +0.60% +7.93% +19.57%

Tech Stocks Had a Rough Week — Here’s the Context

The NASDAQ fell nearly 5% last week, driven primarily by a global sell-off in technology stocks. The concern? Investors are growing nervous about the enormous cost of building out AI infrastructure — and whether the returns will justify the investment.

We’ve seen this pattern before. Technology companies make bold promises, markets price in those promises aggressively, and then reality requires a recalibration. These corrections are healthy and normal — they don’t erase the long-term growth story, but they do remind investors that trees don’t grow to the sky.

The Dow Held Up — And Here’s Why That Matters

While the NASDAQ was down sharply, the Dow Jones actually finished the week up 0.60%. The reason is straightforward: the Dow is composed of only 30 stocks and historically has had less exposure to high-growth tech names. This is a real-world reminder of why diversification across sectors matters — concentration in any single theme, no matter how compelling, creates unnecessary risk.

Inflation Is Still Running Hot

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index — came in at 4.1% for the latest reading, up from 3.8% in May. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, also ticked up slightly to 3.4%.

Both numbers remain well above the Fed’s 2% target, which means the pressure to keep interest rates elevated — or even raise them — hasn’t gone away. Higher rates make borrowing more expensive, which tends to weigh most heavily on growth-oriented companies and real estate financing.

It’s also worth noting: when prices rise, consumers spend more in dollar terms — but that doesn’t mean they’re actually buying more. This distinction matters when evaluating the true health of the consumer.

The Economy Is Holding — But “Meh” Is the Word

First-quarter GDP was revised upward to +2.1%, better than the initial reading of +1.6%. That’s a positive sign — the economy is still growing, jobs remain intact, and consumer spending is holding. But it’s not the breakout growth that would justify the premium valuations still priced into many parts of the market.

Markets don’t just react to how things are — they react to how things compare to expectations. When the expectation is “great” and the reality is “fine,” you can still see a pullback. That’s part of what we experienced last week.

Iran, Oil, and the Geopolitical Wild Card

Talks between the U.S. and Iran continue, but the situation remains unsettled. Iran is still conducting strikes on neighboring countries and disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. Meanwhile, the U.S. has responded with targeted strikes.

What This Means for Energy Prices

Oil ended Friday at approximately $69.23 per barrel, down from $77.49 the prior week — but still elevated relative to where it was before the conflict began. The risk here is clear: even a mild escalation can push oil higher quickly. Oil above $80 begins to meaningfully pressure both corporate margins and consumer budgets. This is one geopolitical thread worth watching closely.

What We’re Watching This Week

It will be a shortened trading week with markets closed Friday, July 3rd for Independence Day. Trading volume will likely thin out Thursday as well. Here’s what’s on the calendar:

• Wednesday: ADP Employment Report and mortgage application data — an early look at hiring trends ahead of the official jobs report.
• Thursday: The Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. Expectations are for unemployment to hold at 4.3%, wages to remain flat, and job creation to come in slightly below last month’s pace.

The jobs report is always a market mover. Stronger-than-expected job growth could reinforce the Fed’s case for keeping rates higher for longer. A softer reading might give investors hope for rate relief down the road.

Key Rates & Commodities

	June 26	June 19
10-Yr Treasury Yield	4.38%	4.50%
30-Yr Mortgage Rate	6.56%	6.48%
Oil (per barrel)	$69.23	$77.49
Regular Gas (per gallon)	$3.87	$3.94

Weeks like last week can feel uncomfortable. But they are a normal part of investing — and for our clients with well-structured, diversified portfolios, they are not a reason to make reactive decisions. As always, the goal is to stay disciplined, stay the course, and not let short-term noise override a sound long-term plan.

If you have questions about how current market conditions relate to your specific financial picture, we’re always here to talk.